What this document is
The State A / State B economic model for Northern Ireland’s 11 councils, with the two payment flows kept separate and every council shown on its own.
- State A’s published benchmarks run from £90 to £156 a tonne, with Landfill Tax alone at £130.75. State B’s fee is £111.81, escalating 2.5% a year.
- At full capacity the councils together pay £60.3M a year in Beneficiation Fee and receive £74.2M a year in Circular Royalty™ — two gross flows, reported separately.
- Over the 30-year minimum term the councils receive about £3.27B in Circular Royalty™, each council on its own tonnes, with zero council capital.
Northern Ireland
Economic Impact Report
The fee is below Landfill Tax alone. The royalty is separate, larger, and paid to each council on its own tonnes.
State A — the current system
In 2024/25 the councils sent 141,836 tonnes to landfill and 346,138 tonnes to energy recovery. Landfill has since fallen sharply: arc21’s councils stopped sending untreated residual to landfill in February 2025, and landfill was 4.8% of the April–June 2026 quarter. Most residual is now pre-treated and burned for energy, much of it abroad: Northern Ireland exported about 302,000 tonnes of residual and refuse-derived fuel in 2025.
No council publishes what it pays per tonne. The published benchmarks are:
| Route or charge | £ per tonne | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Beneficiation Fee, Year 1 | £111.81 | US$150 at the Bank of England rate of 2 November 2026 (£1 = US$1.3416); escalates 2.5%/yr |
| Landfill Tax alone, 2026–27 | £130.75 | HMRC standard rate, from 1 April 2026 |
| Landfill Tax alone, 2027–28 | £136.70 | Announced at Budget, 28 October 2026 (reported; gov.uk notice pending) |
| Landfill, gate fee plus tax | £146–156 | Market index, March 2026, at the 2025–26 tax rate |
| Energy-from-waste gate fee, UK | £100–130 | Market index, March 2026; WRAP UK median £121 (2024/25) |
| Refuse-derived fuel export | £90–140, plus ~£15 baling | Market index, March 2026, including haulage from the producer site |
An independent 2020 review for arc21 found councils paying more than £16M a year to export 138,183 tonnes (about £116 a tonne) and more than £30M a year on landfill. Those are 2020 figures and are shown for context only. This report takes no position on any council’s contracts or on the Hightown application.
State B — Advanced Circular Manufacturing under eleven CSAs
What State B is not. Advanced Circular Manufacturing is not incineration, not energy from waste, not pyrolysis and not gasification. There is no combustion at any stage, no stack and no ash, and Carbotura does not sell power, electricity or hydrogen — energy is consumed internally, never a revenue line.
In State B each council delivers its residual to the central site and pays a Beneficiation Fee of US$150/t (£111.81), escalating 2.5% a year. Separately and independently, Carbotura pays each council a Circular Royalty™ on the same delivered tonnage. The table shows all 11 councils together.
| Year | Delivered t | Beneficiation Fee (£/t) | Annual Beneficiation Fee | Royalty multiplier | Circular Royalty™ (£/t) | Annual Circular Royalty™ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 146,000 | £111.81 | £16.3M | 120% | £134.17 | £19.6M |
| Year 2 | 292,000 | £114.60 | £33.5M | 121% | £138.67 | £40.5M |
| Year 3 | 438,000 | £117.47 | £51.5M | 122% | £143.31 | £62.8M |
| Year 4 | 500,832 | £120.40 | £60.3M | 123% | £148.10 | £74.2M |
| Year 5 | 500,832 | £123.41 | £61.8M | 124% | £153.03 | £76.6M |
| Year 10 | 500,832 | £139.63 | £69.9M | 129% | £180.12 | £90.2M |
| Year 20 | 500,832 | £178.74 | £89.5M | 139% | £248.45 | £124.4M |
| Year 30 | 500,832 | £228.80 | £114.6M | 149% | £340.92 | £170.7M |
| 30-year gross | — | — | ~£2.39B | — | — | ~£3.27B |
Delivered tonnage follows the four-year staging: one 400 TPD unit a year to 1,600 TPD. Accrual basis throughout: Year n carries Mₙ × BFₙ on Year n tonnage; cash follows 13 months after each fee payment. The two columns are independent gross flows and are never netted. Figures ILLUSTRATIVE.
The fee against published benchmarks
The comparison this report will stand behind is per tonne, against published figures. At £111.81, the Beneficiation Fee is below Landfill Tax alone (£130.75 now, £136.70 from April 2027), and inside the £100–130 energy-from-waste range before export haulage and baling. Landfill Tax is uprated with inflation each April; the fee escalates 2.5% a year.
Carbon cost sits on combustion routes, not on this one. The UK delayed adding energy from waste to its Emissions Trading Scheme in August 2026, with no new date. In Northern Ireland, incineration falls within the EU system under the Windsor Framework, which is still being transposed. Pre-delay industry estimates put the carbon cost at £39–58 a tonne of residual burned. ACM involves no combustion. We show no carbon figure in the model, because neither the timing nor the price is settled.
Carbotura’s capital for the four units is US$900M: US$240M for the first 400 TPD unit and US$220M for each of the next three. No council commits any capital at any stage. For scale, the Hightown energy-from-waste project is reported at £240–250M for about 300,000 tonnes a year of capacity.
Economics by council
Each council’s figures stand alone: its own fee on its own tonnes, its own royalty on the same tonnes.
| Council | Beneficiation Fee · 30-year gross | Circular Royalty™ · 30-year gross | Circular Royalty™ per resident · Year 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antrim & Newtownabbey | £211M | £288M | £44.06 |
| Ards & North Down | £173M | £237M | £32.58 |
| Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon | £241M | £330M | £33.57 |
| Belfast | £466M | £638M | £41.16 |
| Causeway Coast & Glens | £201M | £275M | £44.06 |
| Derry City & Strabane | £198M | £271M | £40.32 |
| Fermanagh & Omagh | £147M | £202M | £38.91 |
| Lisburn & Castlereagh | £185M | £253M | £37.64 |
| Mid & East Antrim | £184M | £252M | £40.83 |
| Mid Ulster | £172M | £235M | £35.02 |
| Newry, Mourne & Down | £209M | £286M | £35.56 |
| All 11 councils | £2,387M | £3,266M | £38.46 |
30-year gross at escalated rates, accrual basis, following the four-year staging. Per-resident figure uses NISRA mid-2025 population. The two flows are never netted. Figures ILLUSTRATIVE.
Employment
Each 400 TPD unit supports approximately 100 direct full-time roles and around 300 indirect. At 1,600 TPD that is roughly 400 direct and 1,200 indirect, added one unit at a time over four years. These are manufacturing roles — process operation, maintenance, quality, logistics — in a central location within reach of every council area.
Employment figures are ESTIMATED from Carbotura’s standard per-TPD scaling, not from a Northern Ireland economic study.
What could make this wrong
Recycling rises, residual falls. At the 70% target, council residual would be about 300,000 tonnes and every royalty figure here would fall by about 40%. Each council’s Minimum Annual Feedstock Volume is set against its own recycling path for that reason, and spare capacity can take commercial and industrial material.
Council costs are not published. We compare with market benchmarks and tax rates, not with any council’s contract price. A council paying below the benchmarks would see a smaller difference on the fee.
The exchange rate moves. The fee is set at US$150 and shown in sterling at the Bank of England rate of 2 November 2026; the sterling figures move until fixed at Term Sheet.
We have no operating plant. Carbotura is development-stage; no facility is at or past Commercial Operation Date. The CSA’s condition precedent exists so that risk does not sit with any council.
Existing contracts and the Hightown decision shape the timing. The staging lets each council join when its arrangements allow; how and when is each council’s decision.
Landfill Tax treatment, composition, data year and siting are open. Treatment of ACM-processed tonnes is to be confirmed with HMRC; the 2027–28 rate is from Budget reporting; DAERA’s 2025/26 figures are due this month; no site has been identified.
Appendix A — Basis of presentation
All fee and royalty figures in pounds sterling, ILLUSTRATIVE until Term Sheet execution; the fee is US$150 converted at the Bank of England rate of 2 November 2026 (£1 = US$1.3416). Capital figures are Carbotura’s, in US dollars. Circular Royalty™ computed under the Release 31 formula: the multiplier applies to the current-year escalated Beneficiation Fee. Accrual basis stated and kept; no table mixes bases. Accounting standard: CIPFA Code of Practice on Local Authority Accounting (IFRS-based).
State A benchmarks are published UK figures: HMRC Landfill Tax rates; the March 2026 market price index; WRAP’s Gate Fees Report 2024/25. No council’s contract price is used and no saving is claimed against one.
The Beneficiation Fee and the Circular Royalty™ are independent transactions and appear only as separate gross lines.
Appendix B — Sources
- DAERA — LAC Municipal Waste Management Statistics, data tables 2024/25 (11 December 2025) and quarterly report April–June 2026 (22 October 2026)
- NISRA — 2025 mid-year population estimates (24 September 2026)
- HMRC — Landfill Tax rates 2025–26 and 2026–27; Budget 2026 reporting for 2027–28
- WRAP — Gate Fees Report 2024/25 and 2025/26
- DESNZ — UK ETS expansion to waste incineration, delay announcement (August 2026); DAERA guidance on the EU ETS under the Windsor Framework
- arc21 — Annual Report 2024/25; Becon project timetable (September 2026)
- Bank of England — daily spot rate, 2 November 2026
- Industry report on UK residual exports, 2026, as reported in the Northern Ireland press